NEAR Investment Thesis: the evidence

Every number on this page was fetched from free public endpoints (NEAR RPC, NearBlocks, DefiLlama, CoinGecko) by python build.py. Generated 2026-11-14T10:25:05+00:00 UTC. Nothing is typed in by hand.

NEAR price

$3.33

as of 2026-11-14

Tx/day (30d avg)

678,139

as of 2026-11-13

Active accounts/day

64,822

as of 2026-11-13

Intents volume 30d

$3.80B

as of 2026-11-13

Stablecoins on NEAR

$133.4M

as of 2026-11-14

Staking ratio

44.9%

as of latest

Burn / issuance

0.8%

as of 2026-11-13

Net inflation 365d

2.5%

as of 2026-11-13

Falsifiable signals

Thresholds live in assumptions.yaml. BULL = the data currently supports the bull case for that signal; BEAR = it does not.

Claim	Metric	Value	Bull if	Status
NEAR Intents 30d volume is higher than a year ago	`intents_volume_30d_yoy_pct`	43.768	> 0.000	BULL
NEAR Intents 30d volume is growing month over month	`intents_volume_30d_mom_pct`	-21.472	> 0.000	BEAR
Daily active accounts (30d avg) higher than a year ago	`active_accounts_30d_avg_yoy_pct`	-75.157	> 0.000	BEAR
Daily transactions (30d avg) higher than a year ago	`txns_30d_avg_yoy_pct`	-84.513	> 0.000	BEAR
Gas fees (NEAR-denominated, 30d) higher than a year ago	`fees_near_30d_yoy_pct`	-70.019	> 0.000	BEAR
Fee burn offsets at least 10% of max issuance	`burn_to_issuance_pct`	0.763	> 10.000	BEAR
Stablecoin supply on NEAR higher than a year ago	`stablecoin_supply_365d_change_pct`	-18.905	> 0.000	BEAR
DeFi TVL on NEAR higher than a year ago (USD, price-sensitive)	`tvl_yoy_pct`	-10.864	> 0.000	BEAR
At least 40% of supply is staked	`staking_ratio_pct`	44.910	> 40.000	BULL
Weekly Intents volume changes lead on-chain usage changes by 1-4 weeks (corr above noise)	`hyp_intents_lead_corr`	0.011	> 0.200	BEAR
Intents volume is a better leading indicator of usage than NEAR price	`hyp_intents_minus_price_lead_corr`	-0.005	> 0.000	BEAR
Weekly Intents volume moves together with on-chain usage in the same week (corr above noise)	`hyp_intents_coincident_corr`	0.166	> 0.200	BEAR

Charts

Daily transactions and active accounts (7-day avg)

30-day average: 678,139 tx/day (-84.5% YoY) and 64,822 active accounts/day (-75.2% YoY).

Query behind this chart

GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/charts -> charts[].txns, charts[].active_accounts; 7-day rolling mean.

NEAR Intents cross-chain volume vs NEAR price

Intents settled $3.80B in the last 30 days (-21.5% vs prior 30d, +43.8% YoY); price moved +41.1% over 365 days.

Query behind this chart

GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/dexs/near-intents -> totalDataChart; price: https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/charts -> charts[].near_price

Fee burn vs issuance (NEAR per day)

Annualized burn is 0.25M NEAR vs max issuance of 32.79M NEAR/yr: burn offsets 0.8%. Break-even needs ~88,880,939 tx/day at today's fee per tx. (Issuance on right axis.)

Query behind this chart

GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/charts -> txn_fee/1e24; issuance = block.total_supply x protocol_config.max_inflation_rate (NEAR RPC)

Total NEAR supply (millions)

Net supply grew 2.5% in the last 365 days (31.74M NEAR), already net of burn.

Query behind this chart

GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/charts -> charts[].total_supply / 1e24

Stablecoin supply on NEAR (USD millions)

$133.4M of stablecoins on NEAR (-18.9% YoY, rank #28 among chains).

Query behind this chart

GET https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoincharts/Near -> totalCirculatingUSD.peggedUSD

DeFi TVL on NEAR (USD millions)

TVL is $156.7M (-10.9% YoY, USD terms so it moves with price).

Query behind this chart

GET https://api.llama.fi/v2/historicalChainTvl/Near

Lead-lag test: does Intents volume (or price) lead usage?

Mean correlation 1-4 weeks ahead: Intents 0.011, price 0.016; noise band ±0.200 (n=96 weeks). Positive k = predictor moves first.

Query behind this chart

weekly sums/means -> log-differences -> Pearson corr(predictor_t, target_t+k)

Model: net inflation by scenario (%/yr)

Zero net inflation needs ~131.1× today's tx count at today's fee per tx (a 165.2%/yr growth rate over 5 years).

Query behind this chart

near_thesis/model.py with assumptions.yaml; starting values from RPC + NearBlocks

Model: staker real yield by scenario (%/yr)

Real yield = nominal staking APR after commission, deflated by net supply growth.

Query behind this chart

near_thesis/model.py

Data sources (this build)

Source	Endpoint	Status	Fetched (UTC)
rpc_block	https://rpc.mainnet.near.org	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
rpc_validators	https://rpc.mainnet.near.org	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
rpc_protocol_config	https://rpc.mainnet.near.org	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
nearblocks_charts	https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/charts	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
nearblocks_stats	https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/stats	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
llama_chain_tvl	https://api.llama.fi/v2/historicalChainTvl/Near	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
llama_chain_fees	https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near?dataType=dailyFees	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
llama_chain_revenue	https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near?dataType=dailyRevenue	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
llama_stablecoins	https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoincharts/Near	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
llama_stablecoin_chains	https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoinchains	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
llama_chain_dex	https://api.llama.fi/overview/dexs/near	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
llama_intents_volume	https://api.llama.fi/summary/dexs/near-intents	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
llama_intents_fees	https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyFees	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
price_history	https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/near/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily	ok	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00
intents_explorer	https://explorer.near-intents.org/api/v0/transactions	failed: HTTP 400: {"code":"Bad Request","error":{"code":"MISSING_TOKEN","message":"Missing authorization header"}}	2026-11-14T10:24:50+00:00

Raw data: data.json. Re-run: pip install -r requirements.txt && python build.py.